I agree, the difference a week makes, from despair, gloom and sack the manager, to top four is on the cards. But what is the realism in this situation: facts as follows
Remaining games and current points
| Everton 29-48pts | Arsenal 29-50pts | Tottenham 30 – 54pts | Liverpool 30 -45pts |
| Stoke | Reading | Swansea | Aston Villa |
| Tottenham | West Brom | FC Basel | West Ham |
| QPR | Norwich | Everton | Reading |
| Arsenal | Everton | FC Basel | Chelsea |
| Sunderland | Fulham | Chelsea | Newcastle |
| Fulham | Man Utd | Man City | Everton |
| Liverpool | QPR | Wigan | Fulham |
| West Ham | Wigan | Southampton | QPR |
| Chelsea | Newcastle | Stoke | |
| Sunderland |
There are millions of combinations of possible outcomes, but a number of factors come in to play at this point of season
1- Current Form
2- Position (e.g. relegation, something to play for, cup final places etc)
3- Home vs Away games
4 – Head to head against rivals.
5 – Squad size and injuries.
Out of all these run-ins, Liverpool probably have on paper the easiest, but given their sporadic nature I dont think they have what it takes to overhaul a 9 pt gap. Estimated final points, 60pts
Arsenal, I dont think have the stomach for battles. There form undulates more than a roller coaster, they have some tough away games, overall I think they will accumulate another 15pts putting them on 65pts.
Spurs, there season will hinge on AVB’s desire to win a trophy, the UEFA cup and his team’s ability not to run into injuries. On paper their last 4 games should give them a minimum of 10 pts, so I think another 15pt leaving total of 69pts.
Everton, their destiny is in their own hands. We play all their nearest rivals (including chelsea, who I think are well on track for 3rd) and if we can get over the hurdle of missing 2 of our best players, in combination with a run of form for Jelavic, who knows. Though realistically, we have the toughest run in, we play all our rivals on their home ground and a realistic point grab from last 9 games is 14pts. Meaning final total 62pts and a credible 6th place. If you take into consideration, being robbed of 4 pts earlier in the season, a fifth place would have been a good achievement and guarantee European football. Fingers crossed, we can claw a few more points.
We can win our four home games and I reckon take points off Spurs, Arsenal and Sunderland away – can we convert one of the away games to a victory?….if so could be the difference – don’t want to mention the Derby…..!
Rich, I agree, QPR might be a bit slippy – though I am a born pessimist, i think a naturual trait when following Everton.
I also think we can beat Chelsea, who hopefully will have other things on their mind come that stage of the season.
Looking back, ended up not far off the mark, though Arsenal completed a good run in for them. As expected, Liverpool capitulated, and we finished in 6th. Crystal ball out for the new season…. 7th.